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A Puzzle
Posted 1/21/07
[quoteazrael910 wrote:

This little thing was the spawn of the devil himself.

quote]

LOL, hehe. Goats are funny. Personally i think ducks are the source of all evil. Anyways, i would stick with my original choice, since if i ended up changing it and it was wrong, I would regret it more than just keeping with my first instincts
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29 / M / Sask-at-chew-an,...
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Posted 1/21/07
The goat is behind door one the game show host knows that 2 and 3 have goats thats why he knew that there was a goat behind the door he picked.

"Then I'll open one of the other doors to reveal a goat."
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27 / F / UK
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Posted 1/21/07
^is that the solution?
I suppose that makes sense. Ah that was really annoying, I'm useless at puzzles!
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29 / M / Sask-at-chew-an,...
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Posted 1/21/07
I dont know if its the solution thats my guess but it seems right then again maybe its just all dumb luck... flip a coin if its heads keep the door if its tails change... but I think my earlier post is the answer.
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29 / M / US
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Posted 1/21/07
Well, I'm kinda surprised no one seems to have heard of this before, as its a famous puzzle, but thats a good thing.

What I am disappointed about is the number of people who don't even seem to understand the puzzle. There are 3doors. 2goats,1car. You pick a door, you don't know what it is. Show host shows you one of the goats behind one of the doors you did not pick. You still don't know what you have picked, but the host gives you a chance to switch, do you do it?

Its a rather simple puzzle, but I understand how it is very difficult on ones first exposure to it.

Look, there are basically two reasonable answers. Either its 50/50 so it does not matter if you switch, or switching increases your odds. Knowing this, when I was first presented the puzzle when I was 15 or so I figured it was 50/50, but it can't hurt to switch so may as well to remove all doubt.

So, does anybody have any good reason why they think the odds are 50/50 either way or why it might be better to switch?
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25 / M / ..where the trees...
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Posted 1/21/07
I think that I would risk cause maybe behind door number 2 are 2 goats or even more!
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29 / M / US
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Posted 1/21/07
^first post.: "car behind one of three doors. There is a goat behind each of the other doors."

I think we have seen that one goat is bad enough from some of the posts in this thread...
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22 / M / Studying hard...o...
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Posted 1/21/07
I must choose door #2.
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27 / F / Gallifrey
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Posted 1/21/07
It's simple probability guys. When you first pick a door there's a 2/3 chance that you've picked a goat, so since the host shows you where the other goat is, the probability is better that the car is behind the second door.
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Posted 1/21/07
^ yeah I was going to say that I just assumed that a puzzle from Eros might had a catch or a hidden trap in it.
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27 / F / california
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Posted 1/21/07
I....am stumped. I'd choose door one still. If there are two goats in the other doors, then that means you must have chose the door with the car right?

You choose door 1, so door 2 and 3 have goats and he showed one of the two doors....but wait...what if you picked the door with the goat, the other still has the car. 50/50 chance that you'll pick a goat or car after knowing that one of the doors has a goat.

UGH. Yeah, I'm getting myself confused and rambling on....senselessly.

edit: I don't want to read the other posts....I wanna figure this out by myself, so if someone already said the answer..I probably didn't see it. xD

but I just noticed something again..the probability of winning a car is 1/3 and the probability of winning a goat is 2/3....after showing a goat in one of the doors..the probability of winning a car is still 1/3.

Okay wait..so if she picks a goat door and doesn't switch, then she'll lose. that can happen twice since she can either pick the first goat or the second goat..right? UHHH...if she picks the one with the car, then she can't switch. But if she switches, there's a better chance that she'll win...since 2/3 of the time she wins if she switches...1/3 if she doesn't switch...

I hate statistics. D;

I change my answer, I would switch.

*Edited by mauz15
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29 / M / US
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Posted 1/21/07
The key is why is the probability still 1/3 even though there are only two doors left, one goat, one car. So, seemly counter to common sense, if you switch you have roughly 2x the probability of winning the car!

Here is an interactive version: http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html

more info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

Simplest way to show the right way to go assuming 1-goat,2-goat,3-car:
pick1-shows2-now pick between 1or3. stay lose
pick2-shows1-now pick between 2or3. stay lose
pick3-shows2-now pick between 1or3. stay win
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27 / M / ...
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Posted 1/21/07
i remember this question it was on my data test.
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29 / M / US
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Posted 1/21/07
^ use this thread for introductions:
http://www.crunchyroll.com/showforumtopic?id=3

And dont dual account!
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27 / M / USA
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Posted 1/21/07
I'd stick with my first choice because the host said "First you point toward a door," he says. "Then I'll open one of the other doors to reveal a goat.

so if hes gonna open one of the other doors to reveal a goat the other doors must have goats while your choice has the car...i think
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