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A Puzzle
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29 / M / US
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Posted 1/21/07
^ Intentional Obliviousness at work right there folks.
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27 / M / USA
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Posted 1/21/07
woahh...whats with the big words?
did i miss that the answer was said
because dont usually read earlier posts
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29 / M / australia
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Posted 1/21/07
hmm well i would reckon that if he showed me what was behind the door he would be trying to make me change my choice and staying with the door i chose in the first place has just as much chance of being right as the other door so why bother changing. if i thought it was behind that door when there was three it just means that my chances of being right have increased by sticking with that door.
also i wouldn't care if i'd won the goat because i've always wanted to have a pet goat that way i could feed him all sorts of stuff and i could eventually eat him i've always wondered what goat tastes like
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23 / F / My Asylum [aka b...
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Posted 2/27/07
I would stick with my first decision, if I win a car....I'll drive around in it a lot, if I win a goat...then good for me, I get a pet goat... xD
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35 / F / Virginia
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Posted 2/27/07
hehhh??
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24 / F / zUrigaO ciTy
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Posted 2/27/07
i dont understand it.... ehehehhehe
q_h
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Posted 4/11/07

Eros wrote:

So, the question is, should you stay with door number 1 or switch to door number 2?


lol.. i know this is a pretty old thread with reasonings given... but i'd just like to express my opinion.

to that particular question, I'd say I would do whatever I feel like at the time (intuition). meaning, if i feel like switching i'd switch; if i don't i don't!
b/c even though there's a higher probability (2/3) that you'd get the car if you switch to the second door, it does not necessarily mean that the car is behind the second door. the actual location of the car is still 50/50.

it's like if i give you a die with 4 sides painted red and 2 painted black... even though there's a higher probability of you getting red on your first toss/throw... it does not mean that you won't get black your first try. [hehe... does this make it more confusing?]

you win if you choose the right door, not if you choose the one with a higher probability of being the right one.

ps. hehe... i like and dislike puzzles at the same time.
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F / somewhere in silence
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Posted 4/12/07
I would stay with my first choice only b/c everytime I don't on test, I usually had the right answer before i changed it...is that really a puzzle? or just a what if question...its more of probablity then having a correct answer...
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58 / F / Melbourne
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Posted 4/12/07
This is called the Monty Hall problem and has been around for several years. It even featured on an episode of Numb3rs a couple of years back. It has several inherent assumptions eg that the contestant actually wants a car not a goat. Overall it is best to change, if you are relying on probability alone and not lucky numbers etc. Look here if you want a complete discussion.
http://www.cut-the-knot.org/hall.shtml

Also, it depends on whether the host likes the contestant enough to offer him/her a second chance.

Posted 4/12/07
I've heard this puzzle.
My answer to it when I first heard it was that I would stick with my original instinct with the door I chose in the first place.
I figured I would be more gutted if I had changed doors and realised I had made the wrong decision then sticking to one of the "goat" doors from the beginning.

does that make sense?
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F / somewhere in silence
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Posted 4/12/07
that seems like a bunch of hooey to me, only the guy who made the problem can say whats right and whats wrong, point is only one door can have the prize, and the prize is suppose to be the car or else there would be three cars and one goat, either way if the person wants the goat or the car, then that only changes the probablity from 50% to 75% or it makes it easier b/c they could just say well I want whats behind door number three

some ppl kill me...all those ppl really put all their time and effort into depbating something so erm lack of a better word lame
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30 / M / Japan
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Posted 4/12/07
Couldn't he just cut to the chase and make you pick between two doors? I'd stick with my door. I'd find it too agonizing to switch, and then find that my original choice was the correct one.
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25 / M / Philippines
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Posted 4/12/07
i would switch, i don't really stick to decisions easily, and is there even a correct answer?!
Posted 4/12/07
The Reason Why;

It is all determined by the fact that you have to choose randomly at first. It does not matter that the host shows you there is a goat behind one of the doors, the randomness still applies, and therefore the probabilities still apply.
The idea that there are 3 distinct doors also is a trick, to you, all the doors are equal;
1/3 chance of a car, 2/3 chance of a goat
We cannot visualise that there is 1/3 or 2/3 of respectively a car or a goat, however, for the sake of the problem, that is what there is.
The host does not even need to open the door and show you the goat, we know that he is completely respectable. We now know that there is 1/1 of a goat behind that door.
This does not affect the randomness of our first choice!
So, the probability that there is a goat behind the door you have chosen is still 2/3
There is only 1/1 of a goat left, and there can only be 1/1 of anything in total behind any door.
Therefore, there is 1/3 of a goat behind the other door, and 2/3 of a car.

So, you switch... Though I wouldn't mind getting a goat, it might be a terrible car anyway.

[Sorry that it was so long and rambling]
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30 / M / Japan
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Posted 4/12/07
^ Interesting deduction... but I'd still leave it as is.
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