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A Puzzle
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29 / M / California
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Posted 4/15/08
Well..if the host knows what he is doing, then he would always show the goat as you pick a door. Now...the chances of picking the car is 1/3 chance and picking a goat is 2/3 chance. Now, based on this, it is more likely that you would pick a goat for the first try. But if you switch, you then double your chances from 1/3 of picking the car to 2/3 of picking the goat.

In a sense, picking the goat and switching it has a higher chance of success. So, the only time you lose is if you pick the car first, and switching it to a goat. That chance of losing is 1/3 instead of 2/3 if you weren't given an option to switch.

=]
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25 / F / Nansai Osaka, Jap...
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Posted 4/15/08
your first choice is always the best choice.
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29 / M / California
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Posted 4/15/08

hitsugayaLuver wrote:

your first choice is always the best choice.


That's what your instinct tells you, but you be wrong.

Since it's more likely, two-thirds, that you pick the goat your first try. There's a video that a guy posted on here on the show Numb3rs.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=P9WFKmLK0dc

=]
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28 / F
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Posted 4/15/08
I'll take the goat. Free milk everyday. Oh wait. Its not a sheep.Hm.. Then I'll stick with my gut feeling.
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33 / M / Metro City
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Posted 4/15/08
My instincts point to door number 2.
Posted 4/16/08
I would switch to two . It`s my favourite number .
Also , it seems like it`s a pattern where the prize is in the middle of somewhere .
Besides , if I get the goat , I`d sell it . Either way , it`s a win .
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25 / M / I couldnt tell yo...
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Posted 4/16/08
i would go for door number 3
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