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Naruto 108/109 and (most of the) Shugo Badge Winners!!
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39 / M / Winston.GA
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Posted 6/7/09
I was already watching Sugo Chara before this started(actually signed up because I hate waiting and there was a gap in the middle) but after I got done with the one ones I hadn't watched up to the current episodes I started to rerun them. I'm still missing Dia...like everyone else! It did however take me forever to get Ran and a couple other ones I thought should be common....
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25 / M
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Posted 6/7/09
They are common relative to Dia :-P
Posted 6/7/09

darkcat1 wrote:
I was already watching Sugo Chara before this started(actually signed up because I hate waiting and there was a gap in the middle) but after I got done with the one ones I hadn't watched up to the current episodes I started to rerun them. I'm still missing Dia...like everyone else! It did however take me forever to get Ran and a couple other ones I thought should be common....


it seems to generally be believed (or at least no one has posted a solid reasonable alternative yet) that the odds go something like this:

50/50% chance of getting a batsu or a chara egg.
if you get a chara egg, your odds are 1 in 12 to get each of the common ones.

dia appears to be something like 1 in 5000 or worse. possibly a lot worse.
however, as we don't know the actual mechanics of Dia's distribution, we can never really be sure.

for instance, it could be that 1 Dia was available per day, and all 13 chara's had a 1 in 13 chance. however, once the dia for the day had been found, if someone else ranndomly selected a dia badge, it would automatically be substitued via some other method. (like just re-roll for it, or have a 12-hour pattern where each character was automatically selected to replace the dia badge in rotating 1 hour shifts.)

like i said.. because of the extremely rare odds, and/or other methodfs of limiting Dia's appearance in the badges, we can never really know just exactly what the real odds of finding her were. as for the other badges, in collecting and tracking the 700 or so i've collected, i had between 18 and 35 of each badge, with a reasonable spread between them, so i figure a simple standard deviation pattern based on random results, and the "true" odds of each badge are roughly equal. (flip a coin 100 times; the odds are supposed to be 50/50, but it's fairly unlikely that you will actually score exactly 50 heads and 50 tails in each batch of 100. but over the course of 1000's of flips, you can see the average of heads and tails moving slowly closer to a 50/50% ratio.)

so to break it down even more..
assuming batsu eggs are 50% and all 12 common badges have equal distribution chances..

50% Batsu
4.166% x12 chance for each common chara (1 in 12 change rounded at 3 decimal places)
0.008% chance to find a dia badge (1 in 12,500 chance)
-------------
=100%

mind you, i'm just bored and feel like taking guesses at it. all these facts and figures are mostly just that: guesses.
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25 / M
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Posted 6/7/09

tzxazrael wrote:
dia appears to be something like 1 in 5000 or worse. possibly a lot worse.
however, as we don't know the actual mechanics of Dia's distribution, we can never really be sure.


I am approaching 5K badges so far :-P
4260 atm (actually 4254 but give it about a min).
Posted 6/7/09

Nielk1 wrote:


tzxazrael wrote:
dia appears to be something like 1 in 5000 or worse. possibly a lot worse.
however, as we don't know the actual mechanics of Dia's distribution, we can never really be sure.


I am approaching 5K badges so far :-P
4260 atm (actually 4254 but give it about a min).


i will buy you a month personally, if you find a Dia badge within +/- 10 badges of 5k, thats how amused i'll be
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25 / M
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Posted 6/7/09 , edited 6/7/09

tzxazrael wrote:

i will buy you a month personally, if you find a Dia badge within +/- 10 badges of 5k, thats how amused i'll be :P


I don't think they have a system in place for that.
I would certainly be amused as well, though the chances of getting the Dia badge at a location of span of 20 in a total span of 5010 is equal to:

(chance of getting Dia) * (2/501)


EDIT:
Seems like Su is the most common of the common badges, or that might just be me. I often get 3 or 4 in a row.
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19 / F / somewhere in the...
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Posted 6/7/09

Nielk1 wrote:


tzxazrael wrote:

i will buy you a month personally, if you find a Dia badge within +/- 10 badges of 5k, thats how amused i'll be :P


I don't think they have a system in place for that.
I would certainly be amused as well, though the chances of getting the Dia badge at a location of span of 20 in a total span of 5010 is equal to:

(chance of getting Dia) * (2/501)


EDIT:
Seems like Su is the most common of the common badges, or that might just be me. I often get 3 or 4 in a row.


I think that's just you...I still need to get Su and Dia (of course ^^)....
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19 / F / My Own Little World
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Posted 6/7/09
well i dont really want the membership i just want the pretty badges =D
i dont really care for the dia badge though i like the purified dia's look more
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25 / M
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Posted 6/7/09

milknc00ki3s wrote:

well i dont really want the membership i just want the pretty badges =D
i dont really care for the dia badge though i like the purified dia's look more


If only it looked like this then?:
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19 / F / My Own Little World
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Posted 6/7/09

Nielk1 wrote:


milknc00ki3s wrote:

well i dont really want the membership i just want the pretty badges =D
i dont really care for the dia badge though i like the purified dia's look more


If only it looked like this then?:


maybe but she looks sorta funny
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25 / M
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Posted 6/7/09
Yea, I had some trouble cutting them out early on. My others ones look MUCH better at time goes on. Nazo egg and Embryo look great.
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25 / M
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Posted 6/7/09
WOW, 12 Batsu Eggs in a row. Just looked and page 1 of my items is all X eggs.
Posted 6/7/09 , edited 6/7/09

milknc00ki3s wrote:
well i dont really want the membership i just want the pretty badges =D
i dont really care for the dia badge though i like the purified dia's look more

yea, a lot of people seem to feel the same way.


Nielk1 wrote:

tzxazrael wrote:
i will buy you a month personally, if you find a Dia badge within +/- 10 badges of 5k, thats how amused i'll be :P

I don't think they have a system in place for that.

yes they do; a gift membership. on the "buy a subscription" page, there's a checkbox for "this is a gift for [______]" or something like that.

*EDIT* correcting myself: i was thinking of the gift membership page
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25 / M
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Posted 6/7/09

tzxazrael wrote:


I wonder if I will get 5000 total by the time this ends. My rate had greatly decreased as my laptop is beginning to overheat after days of solid work 24 hours a day.
Posted 6/7/09

XxcelestialmoonxX wrote:

Nielk1 wrote:
Seems like Su is the most common of the common badges, or that might just be me. I often get 3 or 4 in a row.

I think that's just you...I still need to get Su and Dia (of course ^^)....


personally i think it's more like the fact that he collects something like a hundred per hour.



Nielk1 wrote:
I wonder if I will get 5000 total by the time this ends. My rate had greatly decreased as my laptop is beginning to overheat after days of solid work 24 hours a day.


take a break for an hour then. reboot your lappy. then you can get back to work on that last 650 or so, over the final 14 hours.
i know.. taking a break is blasphemy, right? at least reboot the system. you'eve probably got a huge pile of memory wedged up in the background that won't release properly

mmm oh damn, my roomie's making curry and it smells so good. omg i love curry so much
what? *shifty eyes*
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