darkcat1 wrote:

I was already watching Sugo Chara before this started(actually signed up because I hate waiting and there was a gap in the middle) but after I got done with the one ones I hadn't watched up to the current episodes I started to rerun them. I'm still missing Dia...like everyone else! It did however take me forever to get Ran and a couple other ones I thought should be common....

it seems to generally be believed (or at least no one has posted a solid reasonable alternative yet) that the odds go something like this:

50/50% chance of getting a batsu or a chara egg.

if you get a chara egg, your odds are 1 in 12 to get each of the common ones.

dia appears to be something like 1 in 5000 or worse. possibly a lot worse.

however, as we don't know the actual mechanics of Dia's distribution, we can never really be sure.

for instance, it could be that 1 Dia was available per day, and all 13 chara's had a 1 in 13 chance. however, once the dia for the day had been found, if someone else ranndomly selected a dia badge, it would automatically be substitued via some other method. (like just re-roll for it, or have a 12-hour pattern where each character was automatically selected to replace the dia badge in rotating 1 hour shifts.)

like i said.. because of the extremely rare odds, and/or other methodfs of limiting Dia's appearance in the badges, we can never really know just exactly what the real odds of finding her were. as for the other badges, in collecting and tracking the 700 or so i've collected, i had between 18 and 35 of each badge, with a reasonable spread between them, so i figure a simple standard deviation pattern based on random results, and the "true" odds of each badge are roughly equal. (flip a coin 100 times; the odds are supposed to be 50/50, but it's fairly unlikely that you will actually score exactly 50 heads and 50 tails in each batch of 100. but over the course of 1000's of flips, you can see the average of heads and tails moving slowly closer to a 50/50% ratio.)

so to break it down even more..

assuming batsu eggs are 50% and all 12 common badges have equal distribution chances..

50% Batsu

4.166% x12 chance for each common chara (1 in 12 change rounded at 3 decimal places)

0.008% chance to find a dia badge (1 in 12,500 chance)

-------------

=100%

mind you, i'm just bored and feel like taking guesses at it. all these facts and figures are mostly just that: guesses.