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Spring 2010 Anime Lineup Coming Soon!
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Posted 5/28/10

danieldust wrote:

Might be Bleach this whole petition thing went way too smooth and finished way too fast, something isn't quite right, if not, hopefully it'll be something interesting.


Maybe its Bleach, maybe the news that CR was likely to be getting Bleach helped close the last series they were negotiating for.

As far as the petition going "too smoothly" ... I think CR knew what they were doing when they set the target of 100,000 in a relatively short period of time.

As CR announced last month, there are over twice as many visitors CR as the same time last year, so that would also help the Bleach petition get to 100,000 faster than the Naruto petition.

Add the effect of people recruiting friends on Twitter and Facebook and such, and CR seems to have known what they were doing when they set an ambitious deadline of when they wanted to get to 100,000.

And finally, there was a big boost to the petition when Dattebayo featured on its site a request to support the petition and request that DB be hired to do the subtitles. As far as the numbers of the petition go, there are 200,000-300,000 downloads at DB's site each week, and from the forums it seemed a number of the did find their way over here. And those in forums (from their lack of CR points) were mostly those who had left CR when it went all legit and went to the DB site to keep getting their bootleg fix.
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If its Bleach that is at least good news for the Summer lineup ... the sooner CR gets Bleach, the more time it has to sink in before its time to negotiate Summer simulcasts. Having both Naruto and Bleach will make that process of getting new anime series go smoother.
The Wise Wizard
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Posted 6/27/10

agila61 wrote:
If its Bleach that is at least good news for the Summer lineup ... the sooner CR gets Bleach, the more time it has to sink in before its time to negotiate Summer simulcasts. Having both Naruto and Bleach will make that process of getting new anime series go smoother.

I have to wonder about that. The first 3 Summer series start on July 1, and I have yet to see a peep from CR. For the Spring, this topic was opened about 8 days before the first series announcement.

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Posted 6/27/10

TheAncientOne wrote:

I have to wonder about that. The first 3 Summer series start on July 1, and I have yet to see a peep from CR. For the Spring, this topic was opened about 8 days before the first series announcement.



And when some question mark boxes turned out to be not as settled as they had thought they were, so that some series they had slated to announce near the start of the season were not finalized until half way into the season ... the on-again, off-again question marks in the lineup caused all sorts of speculation and questions which, in the nature of negotiations with Japanese rights owners, they could not clarify.

In the end, it seems that the "negotiations are continuing" line was the real deal, and not just some excuse to fend off complaints, because in the end it looked like they got what they were hoping to get.

If they learned from the experience of putting up question mark boxes too soon in the process of negotiations, they will wait until later in the process of finalizing new streams this time around.

Only three simulcasts are ending (though one of my two must see series), so four or more series would be an increase in their number of simulcasts.

Mind, there are only a few in the new series list that I'd really be interested in checking out.
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Posted 6/27/10

agila61 wrote:


TheAncientOne wrote:

I have to wonder about that. The first 3 Summer series start on July 1, and I have yet to see a peep from CR. For the Spring, this topic was opened about 8 days before the first series announcement.



And when some question mark boxes turned out to be not as settled as they had thought they were, so that some series they had slated to announce near the start of the season were not finalized until half way into the season ... the on-again, off-again question marks in the lineup caused all sorts of speculation and questions which, in the nature of negotiations with Japanese rights owners, they could not clarify.

In the end, it seems that the "negotiations are continuing" line was the real deal, and not just some excuse to fend off complaints, because in the end it looked like they got what they were hoping to get.

If they learned from the experience of putting up question mark boxes too soon in the process of negotiations, they will wait until later in the process of finalizing new streams this time around.

Only three simulcasts are ending (though one of my two must see series), so four or more series would be an increase in their number of simulcasts.

Mind, there are only a few in the new series list that I'd really be interested in checking out.

If I understand you correctly, you are anticipating that this time they will skip any "coming soon" announcement or line-up, and instead announce series as the agreements are signed and sealed.

I will say that at this point, I would be more surprised if at this time next month, we had 6 new series, than I would be if there were only a single one.

I suspect as legit streaming is becoming more popular, more players are becoming interested, but those that are already in the game are also looking for bigger returns, translating to a higher cost than CR can accept, and/or dictating conditions that CR finds unacceptable. (As an example, if CR was offered the second Strike Witches series with the same limited streaming window as the first series, I expect their response would essentially be "Sure, if you want to give it to us for free. Otherwise, no thanks").

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Posted 6/27/10

TheAncientOne wrote:

If I understand you correctly, you are anticipating that this time they will skip any "coming soon" announcement or line-up, and instead announce series as the agreements are signed and sealed.


Or put up question marks once its signed and sealed rather than a "heads of agreement", as it were. They announced the series on availability to premium members this season, I don't know any reason why they'd change that. After all, the availability to premium members is a one week advance announcement of the "quickstream" (as Viz has started calling the one week delay). So that'd be questionbox up when the contract is signed, sealed and delivered, if that happens more than a day before simulcast.

And, obviously, no switch over to Summer2010 lineup until there are at least one or two contracts signed, sealed and delivered.


I will say that at this point, I would be more surprised if at this time next month, we had 6 new series, than I would be if there were only a single one.



I suspect as legit streaming is becoming more popular, more players are becoming interested, but those that are already in the game are also looking for bigger returns, translating to a higher cost than CR can accept, and/or dictating conditions that CR finds unacceptable. (As an example, if CR was offered the second Strike Witches series with the same limited streaming window as the first series, I expect their response would essentially be "Sure, if you want to give it to us for free. Otherwise, no thanks").


I saw an "insider rumor" that one player has decided to be on the sidelines for streaming for the moment. If that is correct (I have no insider knowledge to confirm or deny it or even find out which stakeholder it is) ... that would reduce the number of simulcast licenses available.

Fuji TV and Funimation have their relationship with the noitaminA slot (aka the noitaminuF stream), so the way that relationships work in Japanese business, they might wait on a clearance from Funimation on any FijiTV series before listening to a CR offer.

But the biggest obstacle is whether the Japanese rights holders believe DVD distributors will be less interested in licensing a series that has been simulcast. I think that is where the 1wk premium + 30 days adstream comes from - making the simulcast something more like a broadcast television series, where they are comfortable that it helps rather than hurts DVD sales ... but obviously it would be better for CR if they can stretch that out to 1+13wks, so if people hear about a series getting better mid-season, they can catch up.

As far as license terms, CR can of course make a pure royalty deal with whatever restrictions the license holder cares to make, but if CR is paying an upfront fee or advancing royalties to finance the subtitle, CR needs to judge whether the viewership will cover the payment up front..

I'd be very happily surprised if they get six new simulcasts, I'd be expecting more like three or four. ReaperEXE reckons the ones that might be available are (the ones he'd like to have a look at in bold):

Kuroshitsuji 2
Seikimatsu Occult Gakuin
Nurarihyon no Mago

Ookami-san to Shichinin no Nakama-tachi
Highshool of the Dead
Seitokai Yakuindomo
Shukufuku no Campanella
Digimon Xros Wars
Shiki
Amagami SS

The Wise Wizard
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Posted 6/27/10

agila61 wrote:
Or put up question marks once its signed and sealed rather than a "heads of agreement", as it were. They announced the series on availability to premium members this season, I don't know any reason why they'd change that. After all, the availability to premium members is a one week advance announcement of the "quickstream" (as Viz has started calling the one week delay). So that'd be questionbox up when the contract is signed, sealed and delivered, if that happens more than a day before simulcast.

Checking back through the announcement topics, it appears that Heroman was actually announced the day before and Uraboku 5 days before it aired.



I saw an "insider rumor" that one player has decided to be on the sidelines for streaming for the moment. If that is correct (I have no insider knowledge to confirm or deny it or even find out which stakeholder it is) ... that would reduce the number of simulcast licenses available.

Fuji TV and Funimation have their relationship with the noitaminA slot (aka the noitaminuF stream), so the way that relationships work in Japanese business, they might wait on a clearance from Funimation on any FijiTV series before listening to a CR offer.

But the biggest obstacle is whether the Japanese rights holders believe DVD distributors will be less interested in licensing a series that has been simulcast. I think that is where the 1wk premium + 30 days adstream comes from - making the simulcast something more like a broadcast television series, where they are comfortable that it helps rather than hurts DVD sales ... but obviously it would be better for CR if they can stretch that out to 1+13wks, so if people hear about a series getting better mid-season, they can catch up.

As far as license terms, CR can of course make a pure royalty deal with whatever restrictions the license holder cares to make, but if CR is paying an upfront fee or advancing royalties to finance the subtitle, CR needs to judge whether the viewership will cover the payment up front.

I have to wonder if the fact that Funimation is also a DVD distributor gives them a leg up in this game, despite the fact that their website apparently has substantially less traffic than CR. They can either make DVD licensing deals that roll in streaming rights, or offer a sweetener on streaming rights in the form of a guarantee of licensing for DVD distribution if a specific viewership goal is obtained.




I'd be very happily surprised if they get six new simulcasts, I'd be expecting more like three or four. ReaperEXE reckons the ones that might be available are (the ones he'd like to have a look at in bold):

Kuroshitsuji 2
Seikimatsu Occult Gakuin
Nurarihyon no Mago

Ookami-san to Shichinin no Nakama-tachi
Highshool of the Dead
Seitokai Yakuindomo
Shukufuku no Campanella
Digimon Xros Wars
Shiki
Amagami SS


I would be happy if we got four, as I am feeling pessimistic, and expect we will see only one or two this time, at least by the time the series themselves start.

Start dates for the four you listed in bold appear to be Monday, July 5, 2010, with the exception of Shiki which is pegged as Thursday, July 8, 2010.

Two of those listed in normal type (Kuroshitsuji 2, & Ookami-san to Shichinin no Nakamatachi) are among the 3 early birds that start on Thursday, July 1.

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Posted 6/27/10

TheAncientOne wrote:

I have to wonder if the fact that Funimation is also a DVD distributor gives them a leg up in this game, despite the fact that their website apparently has substantially less traffic than CR. They can either make DVD licensing deals that roll in streaming rights, or offer a sweetener on streaming rights in the form of a guarantee of licensing for DVD distribution if a specific viewership goal is obtained.


Likely - and it would only take a few of their streaming deals to be picked up as full licensed to reinforce that impression.

Note that Funimation's site traffic is not indicative of the amount of streaming they do - a majority of their streaming seems to be via their Hulu and YouTube channels. Indeed, I just checked now on one of their stream-only licenses, and on their own site, they embed the Hulu stream.

However, its also possible to overstate the gloom and doom - why a common business tool is the analysis of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats, to avoid going overboard on either the optimism or pessimism sides.

For example, looking on Alexa.com, Crunchyroll's rank in the US seems to be rising. A source at ANN says that the Alexa rankings are based on too small a sample to rely on for precise changes, but its the best publicly available data, and should be reflective of longer term trends. Alexa has Crunchy at 1,400th in the US, and higher than that in a number of countries that Hulu blocks out:
* in ASEAN, which means mostly on Naruto alone, 1,357th in Indonesia, 562nd in Malaysia, 350th in Singapore, and 234th in the Phillipines
* in North America, where Hulu is blocked but Crunchy feeds 80%+ of simulcasts, 1,126th in Mexico and 938th in Canada
* In South America, 1,356th in Chile
* In Northern Europe, 1,169th in Norway and 1,091st in Finland.

(though a big market where Crunchy has to spread the word about improved regional access is the UK, where Crunchy is 3,435th)




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Posted 7/5/10
Heh, season has started, and so far 0 Summer 2010 announcements. How long before CR is archives of old shows, Bleach, and Naruto?
The Wise Wizard
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Posted 7/5/10 , edited 7/5/10

zeroryoko1974 wrote:

Heh, season has started, and so far 0 Summer 2010 announcements. How long before CR is archives of old shows, Bleach, and Naruto?

The number is now officially 2:
http://www.crunchyroll.com/forumtopic-645231/summer-simulcasts-occult-academy-tono-to-issho/

It appears this happened about 40 minutes after your post.

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Posted 7/5/10
Quite a far cry from "half of all airing shows in Japan"
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