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Tokyo is Doomed!
Posted 1/24/12

Tokyo faces a 75% chance of a magnitude 7 quake in the next 4 years, say researchers, a figure much higher than the government’s previous estimate of 70% in the next 30 years.
University of Tokyo researchers estimate there is a 75% chance of magnitude 7 quake striking the southern Kanto region in the next 4 years, based the on increased seismic activity observed after the devastating 2011 magnitude 9 quake.
Previous government estimates were only of a 70% chance of such a quake in the next 30 years.
The government estimated in 2006 that a magnitude 7.3 quake striking in Tokyo Bay would kill approximately 5,600 people and injure a further 159,100 – although as there are in the region of 30 million people in the greater Tokyo area, Tokyo is clearly far from a death-trap, and certainly in a much better position than virtually any other major metropolis threatened by natural disasters.
Most of the deaths and damage from the 2011 quake were actually the result of the tsunami, which is not a major risk to Tokyo. The last huge quake to ruin Tokyo, the 7.9 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, killed at least 105,000 – but this was almost all the result of firestorms running wild amidst largely wooden cities.
Still, Japan’s Reconstruction Minister is desperately trying to convince people not to run away:


Please rest assured, and don’t flee Tokyo.
I can prove this [safety] by pointing to the fact that despite the strong lateral movements triggered by the March 11 earthquake, the shinkansen recovered very quickly. I think this is proof how far our earthquake resistance technology has advanced.


Most would agree that contemporary Japanese disaster-preparedness is second-to-none, so the prospects of massive casualties are remote – although this was supposed to be the case for the nuclear plants at Fukushima, and over the years there have also been periodic scandals involving less than earthquake resistant construction, suggesting there is still the risk of unpleasant surprises.
The experience from the 2011 quake, which saw lingering disruption in eastern Japan despite most of the region being left untouched, also tends to suggest that any disruption to the massively over-centralised national capital region may well have dire economic effects for the rest of Japan and beyond.
The findings themselves are unlikely to be news to Japanese seismologists – many have apparently been keeping quiet about their misgivings until now, so as not to contribute to any regrettably un-Japanese panic or truthfulness.
Online there is everything from abject terror to blasé scepticism evident:
Posted 1/24/12
I was under the impression that earthquakes were almost impossible to predict...
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23 / M / Over yonder
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Posted 1/24/12
Wait what.
Posted 1/24/12
Dude, properly source these articles.

Your being really rude to the original authors. Not to mention blatant plagiarism.
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25 / M / Outside the space...
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Posted 1/24/12
what do you expect if your on the ring of fire.......................................
Posted 1/24/12
I really hope everyone will be okay there. =(
Posted 1/24/12

SpicySnow wrote:

Dude, properly source these articles.

Your being really rude to the original authors. Not to mention blatant plagiarism.


someone send me a message about japan is in troubled so i decide to create this and the source is all japanese and i can`t read it
the one who send me a message is a translator
Posted 1/24/12

DestinyJudgement wrote:

someone send me a message about japan is in troubled so i decide to create this and the source is all japanese and i can`t read it
the one who send me a message is a translator


Link?
Posted 1/24/12
Sigh.......




Sources:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/16681136
http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2012/01/20/tokyo-tough-enough-for-big-quake-minister/




Original Article: From "Sankakucomplex" [tabloid / cultural news]
WARNING: This website contains sexually explicit material. It has large amounts of pornographic advertisements on the sides and bottom. Many articles are sexually explicit, but are not pornographic.
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Posted 1/24/12
Well they're doomed...to have more relatively minor quakes, yeah. A 7.0 quake has only one percent of the strength of a 9.0 quake. 5,600 deaths? In a place with 30 million people, about a thousand people will die of old age on an average day, so 0.02% of the population dying in an earthquake isn't really all that scary, and that number's probably from some worst-case scenario estimate.
Posted 1/24/12
@SpicySnow

yes it is
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22 / F
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Posted 1/24/12
I wonder how Tokyo will be after four years then?
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35 / M / Usually somewhere...
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Posted 1/24/12
Everyone dies. They just have a better grasp of when.

I pray, for Japan, myself and others. I am a Christian and my faith is not from this world but in Jesus...
Posted 1/24/12

narutoan wrote:

Everyone dies. They just have a better grasp of when.

I pray, for Japan, myself and others. I am a Christian and my faith is not from this world but in Jesus...


Yes you are right
Posted 1/24/12

whoamiz wrote:

what do you expect if your on the ring of fire.......................................


THE RING OF FIIIIIIIIIREEEE.
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