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Post Reply The Current List of Greenlit-anime
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Posted 3/26/14 , edited 5/12/14
I'm going to say this belongs in this thread since it's looking at the likelihood of anime (sequels) getting green-lit. 'What are the chances of a sequel getting green-lit' is one of the common questions that's always floating around. The typical answer is to look at the DVD and BluRay sales as to how well the series is doing. I became interested in how quantifiable and accurate that really is, so I crunched the numbers for series that started airing between 2010 and 2012.

I think the most relevant numbers to look at are the median sales, and the percentage of series that received a sequel in the selected sales ranges. As would be expected, the median is higher for series that received sequels, around twice that of the general population. What I didn't expect was that there are a noticeable number of series that did poorly in disc sales but did get a sequel; they're still a relatively small number, just not as rare as I had thought. Though the percentages still make it clear that high sales are more likely to lead to a sequel.

Of course, the missing key information here is the source material sales, and how much the anime improved those sales. And I'm only looking at TV sequels, so I omit sequels in the form of movies and OVAs. And there may be sequels announced in the future for more shows in the time range, so the numbers may could change a little.

See end of post for the list of series receiving sequels that are included.


Number
Average Sales
Median Sales
Standard Dev

Received a Sequel
62
11,200
*7,200
11,500

“All” Series 2010-2012
260
6,200
2,900
9,500








And a little bit more comparison in number form...

The fraction of all anime that received a sequel in sales ranges (N_sequel-in-range / N_total-in-range)

Sales range
0000–4000
4000–8000
8000+
all

% with sequels
10%
35%
55%
24%








This could possibly be refined a little by excluding series that have completed the source material, or have some other factor that means they are ineligible for a sequel.


Histograms


(Note, the columns bb code is a little finicky. I got it to render fine in my browser, but let me know if something crazy happens in others.)

Edit (5/12/14): Added two additional series receiving sequels (one that was announced since my post and one prequel that I had missed). The histogram has not been updated.

The Details
----------------
Sales data is average sales per volume (DVD + BD) taken from something's very well done website.

“All” series means that some types of series have been excluded from the analysis. The main exclusions are shorts and specials; Pokemon, Yugioh, and similar; and series lacking sales data (7 series with sequels and ~30 series, mostly from franchises that could be considered outside "main" anime). A way to summarize what "all" includes might be to say everything that has a reasonable possibility of being picked up by CR, Sentai, Funi, or Viz.

Paraphrasing more detailed explanations by something, the sales numbers are only provided when weekly sales ranks in the top X best sellers. So weeks with small amounts of sales where the volume doesn't rank don't get added to the total. This would be the reason Bakuman 2 and Puzzle of God are listed as having zero sales (because they never ranked in any week).

List of television anime series that started airing 2010-2012 and have received or announced a sequel.
The Wise Wizard
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Posted 3/26/14
^ ^ ^
Bookmarked for future reference.
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Posted 4/1/14 , edited 4/2/14
Ai Mai Mi gets second season:
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2014-04-01/ai-mai-mi-tv-anime-gets-2nd-season

Looks like it wasn't an April Fools joke yesterday.

And another announcement earlier today too:
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2014-04-02/ninja-slayer-sci-fi-novels-by-u.s-writers-get-anime
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Posted 4/5/14
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Posted 4/5/14 , edited 4/5/14
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Posted 4/6/14
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Posted 4/6/14
Looks good, should be fun.
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Posted 4/7/14 , edited 4/10/14
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Posted 4/10/14


This one looks like a winner already. I wonder how it'll shape up...
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Posted 4/11/14 , edited 4/11/14
Finally, it's about damn time:
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2014-04-11/the-seven-deadly-sins-fantasy-manga-gets-tv-anime

A great manga gets an anime adaptation. Well deserved.
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Posted 4/13/14
More yuri incoming!


http://hanayamata.com/
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Posted 4/13/14
Himegoto ... it's a trap ....
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Posted 4/14/14
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Posted 4/15/14
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Posted 4/15/14


Does that actually confirm it? From what I read yesterday there was an "announcement" teased, but I haven't seen anything more than that.
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