Which choice will most likely get you the diamond
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30 / M / Marshall, Michigan
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Posted 6/29/13
Suppose you visit a friend and he places a diamond on the table. He puts three identical cups on the table. He turns them upside down and puts the diamond under one of them and a nut under the others. Then he moves them around so you don't know which cup he put it under. He asks you to point at a cup. You point at one and he lifts one of the cups you didn't point at, revealing a nut. He says if you pick the cup with the diamond under it, you can keep the diamond.
So which one should you pick?
1. The one you pointed at
2. The other one
3. It doesn't matter
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X / Rochester, NY
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Posted 6/29/13 , edited 6/29/13
Even though mathematically, switching cups is the best choice (They didn't take away the other cup, so therefore it has a higher chance, 2/3 instead of 1/3) personally I would still stick with my initial guess, just because I go with my gut usually.
There's a theory/popular mathematical equation about this out there actually but I can't recall the name of it. :c

(However I voted on the wrong one and voted what I would do instead of the one more likely, whoops.)


Ah here we go :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
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32 / mars
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Posted 6/29/13
im gonna go with 1. its 50/50 right?
Posted 6/29/13
Both equally likely...
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32 / mars
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Posted 6/29/13
are we doing your homework?
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30 / M / Marshall, Michigan
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Posted 6/30/13

flashgreer wrote:

are we doing your homework?


Certainly not! I'd use a different forum if wanted people to do my homework for me. Also, I've already graduated college. I already know the correct answer is to switch. I just wanted to see how people would respond and the discussion that ensued.
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27 / M / UK
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Posted 6/30/13
every one knows you change your mind so that you are more likely to win I thought that was common knowledge.
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26 / F
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Posted 7/1/13

parker-skywalker wrote:

every one knows you change your mind so that you are more likely to win I thought that was common knowledge.


Agreed. It stems from the game show "Let's Make A Deal," where a contestant was presented with three doors and told there was a large sum of money behind one of the doors.
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47 / M / Rochester, NY
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Posted 7/2/13
Saw this explained on a show called Num3ers
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30 / M / Marshall, Michigan
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Posted 7/3/13

parker-skywalker wrote:

every one knows you change your mind so that you are more likely to win I thought that was common knowledge.


Not really common knowledge.
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30 / M / Central KY.
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Posted 10/12/14
Both equally likely.
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