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Malaysia Airlines flight crashes in Ukraine
Posted 9/17/14 , edited 9/17/14
Time will tell how this unfolds internationally....I should be watching the news more..
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Posted 9/17/14 , edited 9/17/14

Zeboim wrote:

Time will tell how this unfolds internationally....I should be watching the news more..


Well, the thing that gets me most upset about it is that the Russian government considers Ukraine to be a part of its patrimony, something inherently under its control by virtue of a historical "birthright". That's not how Westphalian sovereignty works. The Russian Federation has absolutely no right to run around scooping up all the former SSRs and satellites simply because they used to be under Moscow's control. An agreement was made, Ukraine is a sovereign state, and Russia's "right" to "inherit" Ukraine has been wholly legally surrendered. Russia needs to get out of Ukraine entirely, and that includes the Crimean peninsula. What's more, Russia should immediately stop supplying and training rebellious elements in Ukraine, cease any and all unauthorized crossing of the Ukrainian border, and order every single Russian soldier "volunteering" in Ukraine to immediately withdraw.

The trouble is that what should happen and what will happen are very different animals.
Posted 9/17/14 , edited 9/17/14
Russia will probably get them back through fear and god forbid reform its surrounding Satellite empire. In 2016 given polls I assume a Republcan will be President (if Sarah Palin doesn't run,) and if bush was any indication it might get heated and electric, IF we make it to 2016... they don't give a crap about the EU and once they start to pick up steam the EU might itself deteriorate or back down from its position. Its happened before. We all , the US and the UN acknowledged and accepted Nazi Germany as one of us before they invaded Poland.

Before it gets better, I predict it will get a hell of a lot worse.
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Posted 9/18/14 , edited 9/18/14

Zeboim wrote:

Russia will probably get them back through fear and god forbid reform its surrounding Satellite empire.


The good news is that though Putin very much seems to want to scoop up all of the former SSRs and satellites he'd never be able to actually get them all. Here's why:



The blue outlines the limits of Putin's reach. That little space between Poland and Lithuania is a Russian exclave, the next grey country to the southeast of that exclave is Belarus, and south of Belarus is Ukraine. That little country along Ukraine's southwestern border is Moldova. As for Finland? You'd might as well consider Finland to be blue even though it isn't. There's no way Putin's taking Finland, which has close ties with NATO which seem to be slated to grow even closer in light of Russia's actions against Ukraine.

Each blue state is a member of NATO (three of them in possession of nuclear arsenals), so if Putin ever tried the crap he's pulled in Ukraine in any one of them he'd immediately be considered an aggressor against all the others as per Article 5. Trying to annex territory from or support a rebellion against a NATO member's legitimate government would be tantamount to geopolitical suicide.


In 2016 given polls I assume a Republcan will be President (if Sarah Palin doesn't run,) and if bush was any indication it might get heated and electric, IF we make it to 2016...


It's a bit early to make projections about the 2016 US presidential election, don't you think?


they don't give a crap about the EU and once they start to pick up steam the EU might itself deteriorate or back down from its position. Its happened before. We all , the US and the UN acknowledged and accepted Nazi Germany as one of us before they invaded Poland.


The United Nations was founded several months after Germany's unconditional surrender to the Allies in 1945, so you have to mean the League of Nations. As for acceptance of Nazi Germany, recall that Germany actually left the League of Nations in 1933 and never returned. True, the organization ultimately dissolved and Europe fell into chaos and war, but refer to the above map again. Those are the battle lines between NATO and Russia in a hypothetical conflict, and again: three of NATO's members are nuclear states.

Putin's a bastard, but he's not completely insane.


Before it gets better, I predict it will get a hell of a lot worse.


For Ukraine, at least, this seems like it may be the case. It depends on what happens next at this point. Poroshenko was speaking to a joint session of Congress today on the subject, so we'll see.
Posted 9/18/14
2016 is but 2 years away, hon. What we see now could drastically change if we get a hawk in the Oval Office, just because of the Iraq War. Indeed the Iraq War. Who knows if Putin is imitating Bush Jr.'s "cowboy diplomacy"? As for Nazi Germany, be it League or UN, the mistake was moot. My point was that nobody really did anything until Hitler took his army into Poland.

I watch Obama's job approval ratings in the polls with anxiety. Critics now are calling him soft for not being more aggressive toward Putin. (I'm not really sure what aggression would have accomplished?)

But you are right, live in the now. A lot can happen before 2016.
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Posted 9/18/14

Zeboim wrote:

2016 is but 2 years away, hon. What we see now could drastically change if we get a hawk in the Oval Office, just because of the Iraq War. Indeed the Iraq War. Who knows if Putin is imitating Bush Jr.'s "cowboy diplomacy"? As for Nazi Germany, be it League or UN, the mistake was moot. My point was that nobody really did anything until Hitler took his army into Poland.

I watch Obama's job approval ratings in the polls with anxiety. Critics now are calling him soft for not being more aggressive toward Putin. (I'm not really sure what aggression would have accomplished?)

But you are right, live in the now. A lot can happen before 2016.


Too soft? Senator John "Bomb the Fuck Out of Them" McCain would like to have a word with you.
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Posted 9/18/14

Zeboim wrote:

@BlueOni League of Nations then. Its a moot point if germany withdrew. My point was noone in the League cared until they invaded Poland.They may be watchful on the Ukraine, but noone is really doing anything. It is eerily similar. Be ever mindful, history repeats itself(!).


You can hit the quote button, you know. I won't get mad. It'll even increase the chance I'll know you've messaged back.

The only substantive similarity that I'm noticing is that an authoritarian hellhole has annexed a piece of one of its neighbors and stands poised to steal more land. The US and EU have already imposed sanctions on the Russian economy, NATO is currently conducting joint military exercises in western Ukraine and has granted permission for any member nation to provide lethal support for Kiev on a bilateral basis, and Kiev is looking to join NATO itself. In fact, until the ceasefire came into place Ukraine was biting away at rebel-held territory every day. It was looking like a long, hard-fought struggle which would ultimately end in a Ukrainian victory. That ceasefire was probably spurred partly by a desire to regain several prisoners in rebel custody, but I personally suspect that some implied threats were made in Minsk. Putin probably indicated without stating that if the rebels seemed like they were going to disappear as a factor he was going to steamroll right through Ukraine himself.

Of course, if that ever happened Russia Today would report the whole thing as a humanitarian mission to prevent the commission of war crimes against the people of Donetsk and Luhansk by the Ukrainian military, or a mission to safeguard ethnic Russians from the ravages of the "Fascism" which has "seized control" in Ukraine. RT is about as reputable and trustworthy as Pravda.


Nuclear weapons or no, we can never predict who will be among our allies in a few years. Mind you Russia still has them, less than in the Soviet years, but one is all you need to blanket New England in fallout.


We can't predict it with 100% certainty, that's true. But we can make a pretty good educated guess, and my educated guess is that based on what's been happening in Ukraine nobody in Eastern Europe is going to be giving up their NATO membership anytime soon if they've already got it, and it's at least reasonable to expect that Moldova is considering joining pretty damn hard right now. The only places in Eastern Europe I'd expect aren't are Belarus (dictatorship led by a pro-Russian bootlick) and Transnistria, a semi-autonomous zone in Moldova which is just about one of the worst places in the world to live.


Its why I don't like to think too far ahead, and you're right, its too early, two years..


Uhh...am I not supposed to address the rest since you said this?
Posted 9/18/14 , edited 9/20/14
@ blueOni Ok, you got me.

@LONGNAMEYOUWONTMISS : said: "Too soft? Senator John "Bomb the Fuck Out of Them" McCain would like to have a word with you." Oh, him? Yeah, let's forget foreign diplomacy and bomb the **** out of them. Brilliant.

Posted 9/20/14
Seriously, putin is an ass. I hope he does something and NATO gives him his just dessert. He's a relic from the Cold War; someone needs to stop him, hopefully before too many more get hurt.
Posted 9/21/14
This is my own speculation, but I think dual Ukrainian-Israeli citizen and business oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi ordered his personally funded army to shoot down that plane. Kolomoyskyi has had a long standing feud with Putin, and it appears like this stunt he pulled is trying to put the blame on the Russians. I also believe this is Israel's act of revenge against Malaysia ever since Malaysia convicted Israel of genocide against Palestinians last year, and they got their inside man Kolomoyskyi to do the job for them.

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Posted 9/22/14

themediumdipper wrote:

This is my own speculation, but I think dual Ukrainian-Israeli citizen and business oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi ordered his personally funded army to shoot down that plane. Kolomoyskyi has had a long standing feud with Putin, and it appears like this stunt he pulled is trying to put the blame on the Russians. I also believe this is Israel's act of revenge against Malaysia ever since Malaysia convicted Israel of genocide against Palestinians last year, and they got their inside man Kolomoyskyi to do the job for them.


I'm going to have to invoke Occam's Razor and go with the argument that the guys who were in control of the territory in which the plane was downed at the time, which were being supplied with the firepower and training needed to shoot down aircraft by Russia, and which had an interest in shooting down aircraft for the sake of retaining control of said territory shot down a commercial airliner in a colossal screw up which sent Russia tail spinning into damage control mode and vehement denials of any official affiliation with said separatists in order to cover their own backs and avoid being complicit in the commission of a very serious war crime.
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