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Post Reply What is the best predictor of an anime's popularity?
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21 / M / My Couch
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Posted 2/21/15
Like others have said, the more relatable and easy something is to understand, the more popular it can be. People often complain about wanting something new, but in the end the familiar usually wins out.
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19 / M / My Chair, OH
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Posted 2/21/15 , edited 2/21/15
Yelling... Lots and lots of yelling
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Posted 2/21/15 , edited 2/21/15

mow123 wrote:

Naruto wasn't popular at all in japan, it had a very large sudden spike early November (anybody know why?) but other than that, it hasn't been big really...


Manga ending, movie hype, new game announcement... Tail end of 2014 was busy for Naruto. Not sure if that would push more people to watch the TV anime but it might.


Anyway. I'm seeing a bit a of pattern.

The combination of "new but familiar", "relatable characters" and "quality" keep popping up.

Okay so when you are ready to drop up to six-figures on streaming rights of an anime yet to air, you tick the right boxes... source, genre, characters, plot, studio and your audience.

On that basis Card Fight Vanguard should be pretty high ranking in Crunchyroll's list. Insanely popular card game about a boy who is quiet, awkward. He overcomes his weakness and so on. The studio is TMS Entertainment, same folks that do Yowapeda, Lupin III and Dectective Conan, so you know they are all about quality. Crunchyroll's audience is 80% male with 65% of viewers being between the ages of 18-34.

It's currently 109th in the ranking... with a simulcast... that is 55 minutes away from airing....

If you dumped a boat load of money into the license you'd be feeling suicidal right about now.
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Posted 2/21/15 , edited 2/21/15
ummm idk i would say popular manga/light novels but that obviously doesn't fly with original anime like psycho pass or code geass...

well i don't really know but everybody should watch Gintama has huge fanbase in Japan but not outside of it really


MysticGon wrote:

Crunchyroll's audience is 80% male


wow no wonder i always feel like i'm in a sausage fest
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Posted 2/21/15

Sogno- wrote:

ummm idk i would say popular manga/light novels but that obviously doesn't fly with original anime like psycho pass or code geass...

well i don't really know but everybody should watch Gintama has huge fanbase in Japan but not outside of it really


MysticGon wrote:

Crunchyroll's audience is 80% male


wow no wonder i always feel like i'm in a sausage fest


I was a bit shocked about that statistic too. I thought it was far more balanced than that. Turns out all those panty shots ward off women. Who knew...
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Posted 2/21/15
are you sure about that 80%? kuroko's basketball is 5th place right now and it isn't even airing. Or maybe over here, that show is watched by males...

Also, cardfight does has quite a bit of merch, alot of it I don't think was ever translated, I think the anime might of been a promotion for the card game. No idea if crunchy made money or not, but I hear most companies like crunchy get very little or none from most anime but the really big hits rake in a ton. The Japanese company where probably betting there money more on merch.
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Posted 2/21/15

mow123 wrote:

are you sure about that 80%? kuroko's basketball is 5th place right now and it isn't even airing. Or maybe over here, that show is watched by males...

Also, cardfight does has quite a bit of merch, alot of it I don't think was ever translated, I think the anime might of been a promotion for the card game. No idea if crunchy made money or not, but I hear most companies like crunchy get very little or none from most anime but the really big hits rake in a ton. The Japanese company where probably betting there money more on merch.


100% positive.

http://www.crunchyroll.com/advertising

Also, CR pays the publishers to license the anime for streaming. They make money through subscriptions and ads.
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Posted 2/21/15

MysticGon wrote:


mow123 wrote:

are you sure about that 80%? kuroko's basketball is 5th place right now and it isn't even airing. Or maybe over here, that show is watched by males...

Also, cardfight does has quite a bit of merch, alot of it I don't think was ever translated, I think the anime might of been a promotion for the card game. No idea if crunchy made money or not, but I hear most companies like crunchy get very little or none from most anime but the really big hits rake in a ton. The Japanese company where probably betting there money more on merch.


100% positive.

http://www.crunchyroll.com/advertising

Also, CR pays the publishers to license the anime for streaming. They make money through subscriptions and ads.


Yeah I was talking about the japanese side might of planned cardfight to be just a promotion. You are right they make money from ads and subs. But I don't think they make very much off of it, only the really big hits rake in lots of money I heard... well I heard that awhile ago there user base might be big enough now where they make money off of pretty much all of them now. So if card fight didn't do well they just have naruto pull it basically... Getting back on topic, there has been shows that the japanese thought would do very bad in american/the west, like chihayafuru, but actually did alright. It is hard to say what will be a big hit when the show isn't even really aimed at the west to begin with, so you are right, it is very hard to predict what will be popular over here. Over in japan however it is a bit more predictable. Kyoani is fairly consistent in japan.
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Posted 2/22/15

MysticGon wrote:



So you will develop your own hits by license saving legacy titles and scoping out anime that embody your tastes, all while trying to get the biggest bang for your buck.

Okay, so you go do your fund raising rounds, get your capital and now have a vision you want to go after. How do you go about transforming niche to hit? Who are you going to advertise to and how? How do you ensure it becomes a large buzzing community of fans pining for your title announcements and not a small club of classic car enthusiasts?

I like the idea of only giving the time of day to studios that put in the effort. That's a great start.


as for capital to start? f*** if I know...

How do you go about making niche popular? First by market research to see what there might be a demand for that isn't being done, and honestly, a lot of it would be "feel". For example, look here on CR. There's a niche fanbase that's appreciating the older titles. What do they have that isn't being done now? What is it about the story telling that is making it successful? What plot elements are they hitting upon and which ones are they avoiding?

There's also a lot of rioting about "mature content" being either censored or absent. That doesn't mean load an anime title up with T&A, but it speaks to me as though they are saying that the censorship is flaky, and when combined with the complaint that a lot of titles are all about high school students, then I might try to aim for something with a slightly older character base, and realize that one of the bigger problems is that stories that are being told are holding back their punches, or are watered down. (Elfen Lied and Attack on Titan are fantastic examples of this because they DO NOT HOLD BACK on killing off your favorite characters. You see naked bodies in AoT, but it's in such a way it's not gratuitous. The blood and gore in AoT isn't even that much compared to Tokyo Ghoul, but when it happens, it's memorable and you FEEL it. Tokyo Ghoul also didn't hold back in the second part of their first season. When the main character was tortured, you saw it, you heard it, and you FELT it. But, then, Shigurui, bloody and adult, was just a blip that barely registered because it was TOO much the other way, and didn't hold a good balance of action, characterization, and plot.)

When looking at what has failed, I can tell you that going TOO far over people's heads isn't going to work either.

Also, considering that for every title some major publisher picks up, there's literally thousands that are being submitted and picked as either "second best" or passed because they don't fit regular trends, then you can easily see that you have a LOT of source material to pick up.

As for making these popular, the hardest would be to start. If your studio gets a reputation, then you can start gaining popularity based on that alone. Until then, probably focus on high quality shorts and web releases. I mean it's no different from the gaming world. RIght now, most games being put out are FPS and similar games because they're "safe bets", but then look to see what's available by independent producers. A fuckton more, and you know what? some of those simpler games are kicking serious ass and becoming more and more popular. I doubt that it's much different if you wanted to produce anime or any other medium. Buck the trends. Have faith in what you want to make, and know in your heart that it will be fucking awesome and chances are, it will.

At least that's my take.
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