First  Prev  1  2  Next  Last
Post Reply Time of EVE may be closer than we think
14124 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
40 / M / PA, USA
Offline
Posted 9/4/15
According to most experts in the field, the "singularity" of machines being indistinguishable from humans is somewhere around the 2045 range. Considering there are people alive today who have witnessed an entire technological revolution, I think it is not only possible, but may approach even sooner than that.

Check out some of the work being done by robotics and AI reaearchers. The computer scientist in me is amazed and wants to see how far we can push it forward, but there's also a nagging feeling that we're playing with power that we don't really understand.

https://youtu.be/kZJ6ml2yGHA
https://youtu.be/Wyl72Re5110
https://youtu.be/3IFuv1AVouM
https://youtu.be/K74bO7MFfcM

So what do you think, will we be enjoying the time of eve?
Sogno- 
45682 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
Offline
Posted 9/4/15


?
10831 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
13 / F / California
Offline
Posted 9/5/15


Wrong EVE
5960 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
Offline
Posted 9/5/15
No. Not only are we a long way away from robots with autonomy, there is no industry to mass produce large numbers of (non-industrial use) robots right now, which would require also separate industries to create the specialized machine parts for human-like articulation, etc.

Generally robots capable of moving around in a human-oriented environment are custom made in the single digits for academic research (eg Willow Garage). Especially in the case of an android there's a lot of processing units, cooling systems, etc., these things have to have in the limited amount of volume there is in a human-shaped space.

Most of today's research is not interested in recreating the human form, but rather in specializing each robot body for a particular task.
There is still more success right now with three fingered manipulators or suction pads than human hand replicas, and these non-human designs are probably what will hit market first (for example, Baxter)

Imo we'd be pretty lucky to have non-humanoid robots with the intelligence of a chimp in the 2040s. We're not going to need Blade Runners for a very long time.
599 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
26 / M / Connecticut
Offline
Posted 9/5/15

cenobytecode wrote:

According to most experts in the field, the "singularity" of machines being indistinguishable from humans is somewhere around the 2045 range. Considering there are people alive today who have witnessed an entire technological revolution, I think it is not only possible, but may approach even sooner than that.

Check out some of the work being done by robotics and AI reaearchers. The computer scientist in me is amazed and wants to see how far we can push it forward, but there's also a nagging feeling that we're playing with power that we don't really understand.

https://youtu.be/kZJ6ml2yGHA
https://youtu.be/Wyl72Re5110
https://youtu.be/3IFuv1AVouM
https://youtu.be/K74bO7MFfcM

So what do you think, will we be enjoying the time of eve?


.....

I'm saving up for my Chobit from now then
29840 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
F
Offline
Posted 9/5/15
For a minute, I thought you were talking about EVE the game.. pretty disappointed. But 2045, I will still be living.
14124 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
40 / M / PA, USA
Offline
Posted 9/5/15 , edited 9/5/15
Cyberfaust, not saying you're completely off base, but did you even watch the links?

There's intense research going on for at least the last 10 years to build humanoid machines. There is even an international research team called Geminoid Project that takes these humanoid machines in enviroments and studies human machine interaction.

It was not even 20 something years ago that cell phones were just emerging in the market and weighed about 10 pounds due to the huge batteries and electronics.

Go back 30 years and PCs were unheard and processing in the single digit megahertz range was considered academic only.

18092 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
20 / M
Offline
Posted 9/5/15
Well hope I survive until then.
Posted 9/5/15
I think i'll be long dead lol
18054 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
U.S.
Offline
Posted 9/5/15 , edited 9/5/15
Yea, right.

An iWatch that can only last for three hours?
It's just a mini iPad shrunk as a watch.

We still charge our phones ritually.

We still build buildings with cement foundations guided by steel based frames.
5960 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
Offline
Posted 9/5/15

ayesharocks wrote:

For a minute, I thought you were talking about EVE the game.. pretty disappointed. But 2045, I will still be living.


Ha, that was my first thought at EVE also.


cenobytecode wrote:

Cyberfaust, not saying you're completely off base, but did you even watch the links?

There's intense research going on for at least the last 10 years to build humanoid machines. There is even an international research team called Geminoid Project that takes these humanoid machines in enviroments and studies human machine interaction.

It was not even 20 something years ago that cell phones were just emerging in the market and weighed about 10 pounds due to the huge batteries and electronics.

Go back 30 years and PCs were unheard and processing in the single digit megahertz range was considered academic only.



I did, but these androids are really just gimmicks. None of these conversational androids are capable of locomotion or manipulating their surroundings, like we would expect from the ideal. It takes a lot of machinery, processing units, and coolant to manipulate all of the simulated muscles in the face alone. Simply imitating a human's expressions would take a lot of energy, and tax the CPU which would, in a future android, also be responsible for maintaining balance and executing complex tasks. A manufacturer could cut out the human appearance and gain efficiency, and lower costs.
Androids are incredibly complex machines, and are most likely going to require components that don't exist yet (such as better batteries and more capable processing units than silicon chips). It's a lot to expect in 25 years.

Further, the defense money that might provide the necessary momentum for an ambulatory robot industry is going to throw it at what's proven the most simple and functional.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diaZFIUBMBQ

Take a look at this video of SHAFT from the 2013 DARPA challenge, in which robots had to manipulate a human environment by opening doors, turning valves, etc. SHAFT was the most successful robot there, and while it is vaguely humanoid, you'll notice it doesn't move anything like a human being. It's arms have more points of articulation, and it's a chicken walker.
Further, it is my understanding that not a single robot in this event was autonomous, but all were in fact remotely piloted.

Finally, there is a lot of capital required to make a robot that could do human tasks, like folding laundry, fetching drinks, or doing private things, and very little incentive to do so with cheap human labor available. There's a lot more to robot manufacture than simply making a smaller silicon chip with more circuits and shoving it in a box with a fan each year.
10831 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
13 / F / California
Offline
Posted 9/5/15



SOON.
6221 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
23 / M / NY
Offline
Posted 9/5/15

VZ68 wrote:



Wrong EVE


No, you BOTH have the wrong EVE

10831 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
13 / F / California
Offline
Posted 9/5/15

Alaric_Kerensky wrote:


VZ68 wrote:



Wrong EVE


No, you BOTH have the wrong EVE



No, that EvE sucks.
717 cr points
Send Message: Send PM GB Post
49 / M / UK
Offline
Posted 9/5/15
Are there sex-bots yet?
Wake me up when there are sex-bots.
If I could travel to the future I'd bring a sex-bot back with me.
First  Prev  1  2  Next  Last
You must be logged in to post.