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Post Reply Nearly half of Trump supporters are registered democrats and unlikely voters
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Posted 1/1/16
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/upshot/donald-trumps-strongest-supporters-a-certain-kind-of-democrat.html

https://civisanalytics.com/blog/data-science/2015/12/31/republican-primary-in-one-gif/


Mr. Trump’s strength among traditionally Democratic voters could pose some problems for his campaign. Many states bar voters registered with the other party from participating in partisan primaries. Other states go further, not allowing unaffiliated voters to vote in a primary; in the G.O.P. race, for example, that would mean restricting the electorate to those registered as Republicans — one of Mr. Trump’s weakest groups. This group of states includes many favorable to Mr. Trump, like Florida, Pennsylvania and New York.

Another turnout challenge for Mr. Trump is that he commands the support of many people who are unlikely to vote. Civis found him winning 40 percent of the vote among those it gave less than a 20 percent chance of participating in the general election — let alone in the primary. He held 29 percent among those who had greater than an 80 percent chance of voting in the November election.




What does this all mean? A lot of things, but mainly these three things.

1) A significant portion of Donald Trump's base consist of people who won't be able to vote for him in the primaries.

2) Trump's weakest group of supporters are actually among republicans.

3) A large amount of his supporters are people who aren't likely to vote anyways.

When you put that all together, you get a high probably of Trump losing the nomination, no matter how much the polls and the media try to hype him up. All of those polls you see with a few hundred elderly "voters" are overestimating Trump's popularity.

There are parts in that NY Times article that don't really make sense (like that part about racist google searchs being highest in places with the most Trump support, even though the maps they showed only highlight parts of the country that have the highest populations in general). But it doesn't take away from the other points made about his supporters. Keep in mind that 11,000 people were interviewed for this and not the 500-800 in those polls you guys keep seeing everywhere that claim Trump is overwhelmingly popular among republicans.
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Posted 1/1/16 , edited 9/11/16
American is fucked up enough without trump you americans should be thankful for this
Werina 
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Posted 1/1/16
lol
Posted 1/1/16
It's a shame. I would love for him to win. He sums up America so well.
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Posted 1/1/16
I need to go dig up some crappy articles about Hillary. Shouldn't be too hard considering how she just mucks things up.
Posted 1/1/16
Is this an example of raiding?
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27 / F / The state of Wash...
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Posted 1/1/16
i can see that. Americans in general aren't right wing corporate crazies who want to force religion on everyone. Trump doesn't come across this way......but he is still a republican.

as for Hilary Clinton--- !

who the hell will i vote for ?

i guess i'll go green party again next year. that's my only option, unless Barnie Sanders is the dem's nominee.
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23 / M / AZ
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Posted 1/1/16
I still like Ike
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28 / M / USA! USA! USA!
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Posted 1/1/16

brookline wrote:

i can see that. Americans in general aren't right wing corporate crazies who want to force religion on everyone. Trump doesn't come across this way......but he is still a republican.

as for Hilary Clinton--- !

who the hell will i vote for ?

i guess i'll go green party again next year. that's my only option, unless Barnie Sanders is the dem's nominee.





Why not vote for Trump?



If our politics are just a joke, why not vote for the one who makes ya laugh?



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Posted 1/1/16

maxgale wrote:


brookline wrote:

i can see that. Americans in general aren't right wing corporate crazies who want to force religion on everyone. Trump doesn't come across this way......but he is still a republican.

as for Hilary Clinton--- !

who the hell will i vote for ?

i guess i'll go green party again next year. that's my only option, unless Barnie Sanders is the dem's nominee.





Why not vote for Trump?



If our politics are just a joke, why not vote for the one who makes ya laugh?





The idea of a president Trump sounds funny, but if it becomes reality, it's no laughing matter.
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Posted 1/1/16

Hrafna wrote:

It's a shame. I would love for him to win. He sums up America so well.


A lot of US hate coming from you.

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Posted 1/1/16

PhantomGundam wrote:


maxgale wrote:





Why not vote for Trump?



If our politics are just a joke, why not vote for the one who makes ya laugh?





The idea of a president Trump sounds funny, but if it becomes reality, it's no laughing matter.




Consider the context of the scene and series that .gif came from.
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Posted 1/1/16

maxgale wrote:


PhantomGundam wrote:


maxgale wrote:





Why not vote for Trump?



If our politics are just a joke, why not vote for the one who makes ya laugh?





The idea of a president Trump sounds funny, but if it becomes reality, it's no laughing matter.




Consider the context of the scene and series that .gif came from.


Not everyone will understand the nightmare you're referring to.
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46 / M / Chapel Hill, N.C
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Posted 1/1/16

HuastecoOtaku wrote:

I still like Ike



I'd never thought I'd miss Nixon! But keep in mind that Ronald Reagan got the votes of a number of Democrats during both of his terms. Those so called Reagan Democrats where mostly working class moderates who felt their parties candidate was too liberal. There where also a fair number of Catholic Democrats who voted for Reagan as well.
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Posted 1/1/16

brookline wrote:

i can see that. Americans in general aren't right wing corporate crazies who want to force religion on everyone. Trump doesn't come across this way......but he is still a republican.




That's the only reason I can seriously put up with him, even with the crazy shit he mouths off about.

AT least he doesn't talk constantly about God or the fact that he'd want to make all women baby factories.
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