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Post Reply Iowa Caucus
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46 / M / Chapel Hill, N.C
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Posted 2/2/16

Akage-chan wrote:

Many early polls did show that Iowa would vote for Cruz over Trump. And past primaries have shown that those that win in Iowa usually don't make it to the final election.

If anything, there's a long road ahead.



Cruz would probably pick up a few bible belt states, but will loose to Trump. Rick Santorum faced the same thing when he ran against Mitt Romney.
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Posted 2/2/16

PhantomGundam wrote:


TheCrushmaster wrote:

I wish Paul had performed better. I want a Cruz/Paul ticket. lel


He'll probably do better in states where independents are allowed to vote since the rest of the republican candidates don't bother trying to appeal to that group. Still, 5th place out of 12 isn't bad. Especially when he beat a whole bunch of establishment politicians. McCain was in 4th place in Iowa when there were only 8 people to choose from and he eventually won the nomination. Iowa republicans usually pick whoever they think is the most religious, so Cruz winning was no surprise.

Good points. I hope he'll gain some momentum in those states.
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44 / M / WA
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Posted 2/2/16
Go Carly ...Uh, I mean Rubio!
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Posted 2/2/16
Holy shit, Clinton actually apparently won six coin toss events, not just that one. Sanders won zero. 1 / 64 odds of that happening fairly (which doesn't by itself prove that it didn't, of course). Couple that with it turning out that a lot of precincts were not allowed to report their delegates due to insufficient participants, and it's pretty damned clear Sanders actually won, probably by a wider margin than Clinton fake-won. He's now calling for the disclosure of the popular vote results. Definitely a Gore vs. Bush in Florida situation.
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Posted 2/2/16 , edited 2/2/16
Three things that bothered me about the Iowa Caucus

1) Because of the Caucus system, Sander support which was more concentrated in certain areas (around colleges for instance) may have been equal to more votes than Clinton under a different System.

2) Coin toss wins a chunk for Clinton EDIT: 6 out of 6 coin toss wins for clinton! absolute crap

3) Some sites showing Clinton's super delegates already in the count (despite them not being used unless there's a contested convention, and not voted for by citizens) See picture:

THIS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE REAL DATA which is:
Runner | # of Delegates | % of Votes
Clinton | 22 | 49.8%
Sanders | 21 | 49.6%
O'malley | 1 | Whatever was left


EDIT: #4) The overly complex nature of the caucus, and why the heck it's still around
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34 / F / In a van down by...
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Posted 2/2/16
I'm not remotely GOP, but I hope they have the sense enough to elect Rubio.

I can deal with Trump but Cruz will seriously make this country into The Handmaid's Tale.
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Posted 2/2/16

Nogara-san wrote:

I'm not remotely GOP, but I hope they have the sense enough to elect Rubio.

I can deal with Trump but Cruz will seriously make this country into The Handmaid's Tale.


The thing is, Cruz will never win the general election, especially if Trump does better for rest of primary and runs as an independent.
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Posted 2/2/16

Nogara-san wrote:

I'm not remotely GOP, but I hope they have the sense enough to elect Rubio.

I can deal with Trump but Cruz will seriously make this country into The Handmaid's Tale.


You know, I'm curious about something; do you think Rand Paul would be a viable candidate? I don't think he will, which is why I too would prefer Rubio over the other Republican candidates. I think both Trump and Cruz will both spell disaster for the US unless Congress neuters their powers even worse than what they've done with Obama, and like I've said, I think the Republican Party as a whole is a lost cause right now. Some progressive seem to prefer Rand Paul over the others, though, what do you think about that?

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Posted 2/2/16 , edited 2/2/16

regionlockedout wrote:
As for the Republicans, I'm aware that the Iowa caucus is a far from definitive predictor of the final candidate. Nonetheless, I'm glad Donald Trump's been taken down a peg; with all the arrogance that jerkoff has, placing second really should embarrass some of his supporters, even if he does ultimately make the nomination.


Well, considering he ranted "What is wrong with you people?" when Cruz was edging him out in the numbers at the beginning of the state campaign, wonder what colorful reaction we'll get from him this time.

And even if Bernie Sanders lost the horse race to a photo finish, it does emphasize an important point:
Democrats don't HAVE to vote for the Wicked Witch just because they don't want Trump--Voting Sanders is not only possible, it's now demonstratably plausible.
Hillary still hasn't conquered her "Likable ENOUGH" problem from the '08 campaign, she's still got that "Grace under pressure" problem seven years later, and we'll see her true colors if there's more near-tie results or even defeats in the other states.
We'll start hearing '08 echoes of "It doesn't matter if they don't like me, I've got those delegates in my pocket, and there's nothing anyone can do about it!" (Or does she?)
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Posted 2/2/16
I like how Bernie seems to have a chance vs Clinton. On the republican site... well as far as I am concerned they're all borderline insane in that camp, so well let's hope they'll lose the actual vote later on.
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Posted 2/2/16

Ejanss wrote:


regionlockedout wrote:
As for the Republicans, I'm aware that the Iowa caucus is a far from definitive predictor of the final candidate. Nonetheless, I'm glad Donald Trump's been taken down a peg; with all the arrogance that jerkoff has, placing second really should embarrass some of his supporters, even if he does ultimately make the nomination.


Well, considering he ranted "What is wrong with you people?" when Cruz was edging him out in the numbers at the beginning of the state campaign, wonder what colorful reaction we'll get from him this time.

And even if Bernie Sanders lost the horse race to a photo finish, it does emphasize an important point:
Democrats don't HAVE to vote for the Wicked Witch just because they don't want Trump--Voting Sanders is not only possible, it's now demonstratably plausible.
Hillary still hasn't conquered her "Likable ENOUGH" problem from the '08 campaign, she's still got that "Grace under pressure" problem seven years later, and we'll see her true colors if there's more near-tie results or even defeats in the other states.
We'll start hearing '08 echoes of "It doesn't matter if they don't like me, I've got those delegates in my pocket, and there's nothing anyone can do about it!" (Or does she?)


Thing is it's proportional allotment of delegates for that state so they both left with 22 from Iowa.
http://a.abcnews.com/Politics/wireStory/things-delegates-stake-iowa-caucuses-36611187

She has gotten a lot of the Superdelegates to commit to her, which could have given her the win in 2008. If she keeps them that could do for her, but it will be a hard sell if she finishes second for regular delegates and the party leadership annoints her.

At least there's no opportunity for the crap she tried with Michigan and Florida last time.
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Posted 2/2/16

Von_Goethe wrote:

Holy shit, Clinton actually apparently won six coin toss events, not just that one. Sanders won zero. 1 / 64 odds of that happening fairly (which doesn't by itself prove that it didn't, of course). Couple that with it turning out that a lot of precincts were not allowed to report their delegates due to insufficient participants, and it's pretty damned clear Sanders actually won, probably by a wider margin than Clinton fake-won. He's now calling for the disclosure of the popular vote results. Definitely a Gore vs. Bush in Florida situation.


Ugh, Gore vs. Bush & Florida during 2000... it makes me cringe just remembering about that one.

Six out of six? Maybe it's because I've played too many video games where I've been RNG's little bitch one too many times, but I'm gonna call BS on that.
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Posted 2/2/16 , edited 2/2/16

regionlockedout wrote:


Nogara-san wrote:

I'm not remotely GOP, but I hope they have the sense enough to elect Rubio.

I can deal with Trump but Cruz will seriously make this country into The Handmaid's Tale.


You know, I'm curious about something; do you think Rand Paul would be a viable candidate? I don't think he will, which is why I too would prefer Rubio over the other Republican candidates. I think both Trump and Cruz will both spell disaster for the US unless Congress neuters their powers even worse than what they've done with Obama, and like I've said, I think the Republican Party as a whole is a lost cause right now. Some progressive seem to prefer Rand Paul over the others, though, what do you think about that?



TBH, I really haven't heard much about Rand Paul's policies. And from what I've little I've heard, they're really not any different than any other Republican that's out stumping.

However, I don't get the sense of this country being set back to the 1800s from him like I do with Cruz. And while both Trump and Cruz would make us even more of a laughing stock overseas, at least with Trump, I think the Congress would neuter him some. Also, Trump can be nice occasionally and I don't think he even believes half of the bs that he sprouts.

Cruz would remake the US into the Christian Taliban.


The thing is, Cruz will never win the general election, especially if Trump does better for rest of primary and runs as an independent.


That's true. The Iowa Caucuses really don't mean squat considering that Huckabee won in '08 and then Santorum won in 2012...

I bet someone gonna get fired from Trump's people though!
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Posted 2/2/16 , edited 2/2/16

Nogara-san wrote:
I bet someone gonna get fired from Trump's people though!


ONE person? I'm betting on at least six, until he feels better!
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Posted 2/2/16

MaliceMalus wrote:


Von_Goethe wrote:

Holy shit, Clinton actually apparently won six coin toss events, not just that one. Sanders won zero. 1 / 64 odds of that happening fairly (which doesn't by itself prove that it didn't, of course). Couple that with it turning out that a lot of precincts were not allowed to report their delegates due to insufficient participants, and it's pretty damned clear Sanders actually won, probably by a wider margin than Clinton fake-won. He's now calling for the disclosure of the popular vote results. Definitely a Gore vs. Bush in Florida situation.


Ugh, Gore vs. Bush & Florida during 2000... it makes me cringe just remembering about that one.


Ah yes, "Sheesh, Gore is acting like a freakin' baby! Why doesn't he just give up already and admit that Dubya won, so we can go on with running the country the right way!"
I'm sure a lot of people sixteen years later are treasuring those memories...

https://youtu.be/suv1hcBA3PY?t=23s

(FTM, think Florida '00 was the first time we had ever heard of Jeb Bush, or indeed that there were more of them running about.)
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