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Post Reply What is the probability of alien life in our galaxy?
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Posted 6/23/16
I thought you were gonna say the universe so I was just gonna post "100%"

but if it's just our galaxy then hmmm... 99.9%?
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It doesn't matter.
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Posted 6/23/16
The chances of any life in the universe is negligible and OP is asking if there is more.
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Posted 6/23/16
100%
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Posted 6/23/16
Let's check the famous Drake Equation!

N = R x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L

R = The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.
fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.
ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.
fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.
fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges
fc = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

leading to

N = The number of civilizations in The Milky Way Galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable.

The problem is that we don't have any hard numbers for this equation. Estimates have ranged from 0 to 12,000 or even more. But we haven't found any yet. There could be some explanations for this.

First, a bottleneck somewhere in the equation. Pessimists will probably point to the L variable in that civilizations that have the capability to transmit into space probably develop ability to wipe themselves out around the same time leading to a low value for L. Others may say that fl or fi may be the bottleneck, life developing may be rarer than expected and intelligent life rarer still. Me, I point to fc being a probable limiting factor.

Second, also relating to L, is that maybe broadcast technology is quickly replaced maybe by focused laser technology or some other method so these civilizations only broadcast for a few hundred years.

Third, we have not been listening long enough. The galaxy is huuuuge and even speed of light transmissions take a while to get anywhere. So combine one or two with the fact that have only been listening for a few decades and yeah, we just may not have been listening long enough.
Posted 6/23/16

RedExodus wrote:

things such as the drake equation estimate 2~50 civilizations exist in the milky way


Posted 6/23/16

DanteVSTheWorld wrote:

Zero. The Galaxy is just made up of billions of random stars, rocks and gases. And every one of them is dying and will disappear into nothing. Life here on Earth was a complete accident as we have the perfect circumstances for life (the sun, water, land, the right minerals, gravity which isn't too strong, atmosphere, etc). We are completely alone, nothing else is out there. Which I think makes a lot of people very uncomfortable, so in there burning ignorance and need to know, must believe there is something else out there.


You speak utter nonsense. For every galaxy dying or planet. There a new one taking it place. PS I will not reply back to you or even read your reply.
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Posted 6/23/16
99.99999%
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Posted 6/24/16
Simple 'cellular' life. Probably a lot
Techno societies? Lots I hope. But wouldn't we see their 'archaeology' Transmissions. Heat signatures. Even old dead mega tech around stars
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Posted 6/24/16
2.007%
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Posted 6/24/16
I mean we can't be the only life is this galaxy. The Milky Way is just so massive, there has to be more planets with life on it right?
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Posted 6/24/16
I believe Murphy's law covers what could will happen, an eventuality.
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Posted 6/24/16

KarenAraragi wrote:


DanteVSTheWorld wrote:

Zero. The Galaxy is just made up of billions of random stars, rocks and gases. And every one of them is dying and will disappear into nothing. Life here on Earth was a complete accident as we have the perfect circumstances for life (the sun, water, land, the right minerals, gravity which isn't too strong, atmosphere, etc). We are completely alone, nothing else is out there. Which I think makes a lot of people very uncomfortable, so in there burning ignorance and need to know, must believe there is something else out there.


You speak utter nonsense. For every galaxy dying or planet. There a new one taking it place. PS I will not reply back to you or even read your reply.


Why are you so butthurt. You've always been a weird one. Did I offend your home planet?
Sogno- 
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Posted 6/24/16
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Posted 6/24/16 , edited 6/24/16

Hairbelly wrote:

100% either way.


I have to agree fully with this. We're just discovering lifeforms long thought extinct still exist here on our own planet why would we think there is nothing to discover out there in the vast reaches of space with scientists just now discovering water/ice/etc on planets we long thought we knew everything about? There are A LOT of surprises still out there.We have yet to look in every nook and cranny large or small.
Posted 6/24/16
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