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Post Reply If you want to bet on the election
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Posted 29 days ago , edited 29 days ago
(edit: okay so you can make easy $$$ on the upcoming Hillary presidency if gambling's your cup o' tea)

Too bad because you can't

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/they-wont-take-your-bet-on-the-election-in-las-vegas/


Back then, you could bet on almost anything. In downtown Las Vegas, Michael’s father, Jackie Gaughan, owner of the El Cortez Hotel and Casino, was looking for ways to make his sports book stand out from the crowd. In 1979, Skylab, the United States’ first space station, was about to fall back to Earth, so Gaughan decided to offer odds on where Skylab would land, including 10,000 to 1 if it landed on the El Cortez itself. Australia, a 30-to-1 bet as the landing spot, was the ultimate winner, but the Skylab bet represented more than just a single wager. It was the first of the bets that caught the country’s attention and is the forefather of the ubiquitous odds in global betting markets today, used more for publicity than profit.

A year later, Sonny Reizner, a publicity-seeking bettor who was running the sportsbook at the Castaways casino east of the El Cortez, found the perfect high-profile event on which to take bets: the TV show “Dallas.” As 25 million people watched, the season finale ended with the shooting of J.R. Ewing. Reizner offered odds on who shot J.R, and the bet quickly went national. As Reizner described in his book, “The Best of Sonny Reizner,” “Little old ladies from Iowa wanted to bet. Baptist ministers wanted to bet. Rabbis wanted to bet. Thirteen-year-old kids wanted to bet. Everybody thought they knew who shot J.R. and were willing to invest a few dollars on the outcome.”

But a lot of people involved in the TV show knew who shot J.R., so the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) decided that the bet wasn’t fair. The board forced Reizner to take it down and refund the money.

And four years later, in July of 1985, Nevada regulators codified the rules: No betting on anything other than professional athletic events on the field of play. Collegiate sports and Olympic events were added later, but the political prohibition remains clear in the regulations: no wagering on “the outcome of any election for any public office both within and without the state of Nevada.”


But betting on Hillary would win you maybe a dollar because that's how much it's probably worth
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Posted 29 days ago , edited 29 days ago
It's really hard to say to be honest; I mean a month ago, Hillary might've gotten it but it's also looking more likely that Trump's going to get close.


I do seriously believe he'll get the popular vote though.
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Posted 29 days ago

Nogara-san wrote:

It's really hard to say to be honest; I mean a month ago, Hillary might've gotten it but it's also looking more likely that Trump's going to get close.


I do seriously believe he'll get the popular vote though.


It always closes before the election date

Besides, that map on Fivethirtyeight is showing Hillary winning all those coastal states with more people, versus Trump winning in all those states with less people in the middle of the country
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Posted 29 days ago
Betting markets give Clinton a 77% chance last I read.

Also, Trump has a significantly higher chance of winning Electoral but losing popular than vice versa (despite a significantly lower chance of winning in general).
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Posted 29 days ago

nanikore2 wrote:


Nogara-san wrote:

It's really hard to say to be honest; I mean a month ago, Hillary might've gotten it but it's also looking more likely that Trump's going to get close.


I do seriously believe he'll get the popular vote though.


It always closes before the election date

Besides, that map on Fivethirtyeight is showing Hillary winning all those coastal states with more people, versus Trump winning in all those states with less people in the middle of the country


Ah. I haven't looked at 538 yet today.

Nate Silver is usually on the nose with things so I've been following him throughout the election...


I just can't wait for everything to be over with. Wednesday is my birthday so I might be celebrating with riots going on but I'll probably be too stoned anyway since I have to get a wisdom tooth out to care
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Posted 29 days ago

sundin13 wrote:

Betting markets give Clinton a 77% chance last I read.

Also, Trump has a significantly higher chance of winning Electoral but losing popular than vice versa (despite a significantly lower chance of winning in general).


The electoral is what gets you in though.
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Posted 29 days ago , edited 29 days ago

sundin13 wrote:

Betting markets give Clinton a 77% chance last I read.

Also, Trump has a significantly higher chance of winning Electoral but losing popular than vice versa (despite a significantly lower chance of winning in general).


lol looks like people overseas can actually bet

Well I am sort of kind of betting

-verbally by stating the inevitable result, and
-not exchanging currency... I'm going on a trip soon and if I actually think otherwise I'd exchange some currency by now


Nogara-san wrote:


nanikore2 wrote:


Nogara-san wrote:

It's really hard to say to be honest; I mean a month ago, Hillary might've gotten it but it's also looking more likely that Trump's going to get close.


I do seriously believe he'll get the popular vote though.


It always closes before the election date

Besides, that map on Fivethirtyeight is showing Hillary winning all those coastal states with more people, versus Trump winning in all those states with less people in the middle of the country


Ah. I haven't looked at 538 yet today.

Nate Silver is usually on the nose with things so I've been following him throughout the election...


I just can't wait for everything to be over with. Wednesday is my birthday so I might be celebrating with riots going on but I'll probably be too stoned anyway since I have to get a wisdom tooth out to care


There's not going to be riots unless you count militia somewhere in the boonies
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Posted 29 days ago
Um, you can, you just have to bet online instead of at a casino in Nevada. It says so right in the article, too; first sentence of the third paragraph.

I kind of want to bet, but two weeks ago they had odds of 7:1 against Trump, so the current odds being in the vicinity of 3:1 feel disappointing.
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Posted 29 days ago

Nogara-san wrote:


sundin13 wrote:

Betting markets give Clinton a 77% chance last I read.

Also, Trump has a significantly higher chance of winning Electoral but losing popular than vice versa (despite a significantly lower chance of winning in general).


The electoral is what gets you in though.


Yeah I know, I just keep seeing people saying (or implying) that they think Trump has a better shot at winning the popular than the electoral and I don't think that is true (and therefore the implications of that statement are also not true).
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Posted 29 days ago
10$ on Trump xD

Lemmie transfer to PayPal so it's official.

All jokes aside. let the games begin.
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Posted 29 days ago

Rowan93 wrote:

Um, you can, you just have to bet online instead of at a casino in Nevada. It says so right in the article, too; first sentence of the third paragraph.

I kind of want to bet, but two weeks ago they had odds of 7:1 against Trump, so the current odds being in the vicinity of 3:1 feel disappointing.


Ok I stand corrected

So it's about $700+ to make a easy $200 on the upcoming Hillary presidency, but I don't gamble.
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Posted 29 days ago
Im already betting 500$ on Trump winning with one of my coworkers.
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Posted 29 days ago

dragontackle wrote:

Im already betting 500$ on Trump winning with one of my coworkers.


Jesus... you brave motherfucker.
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Posted 28 days ago
Hmm Clinton will probably win. I'm looking at 538 and even with Florida and NC she's still up 30-35 votes, he has to flip Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania too. It's possible, but he is definitely the underdog.
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Posted 28 days ago

Nogara-san wrote:

It's really hard to say to be honest; I mean a month ago, Hillary might've gotten it but it's also looking more likely that Trump's going to get close.


I do seriously believe he'll get the popular vote though.


Popular vote means nothing because you can still become president with only 22% of the popular vote.

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